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Markets/Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in March?

Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in March?

Data as of Mar 21, 2026, 10:17 PM UTC

Closes April 1, 2026

Polymarket Price

36%YES

64%NO

Volume 24h

$779K

Liquidity

$111K

Bid / Ask

35% / 36%

Spread

0.60pp

Expert Signal

36%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Event Distribution

Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in March?

March

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 1PM ET

above $62,000 on March 22?

above $64,000 on March 22?

above $66,000 on March 22?

above $64,000 on March 23?

above $66,000 on March 23?

above $70,000 on March 22?

above $70,000 on March 23?

Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in March?

36%

above $72,000 on March 23?

$80,000 in March?

Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in March?

above $72,000 on March 22?

above $74,000 on March 23?

$85,000 in March?

Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March?

$72,000 on March 21?

above $76,000 on March 23?

$90,000 in March?

Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in March?

above $74,000 on March 22?

Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in March?

$73,000 on March 21?

$74,000 on March 21?

$95,000 in March?

$75,000 on March 21?

$100,000 in March?

$105,000 in March?

$150,000 in March?

Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in March?

$110,000 in March?

Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 in March?

$76,000 on March 21?

above $82,000 on March 23?

above $76,000 on March 22?

$86,000 March 16-22?

less than $62,000 on March 22?

above $84,000 on March 23?

above $78,000 on March 22?

$77,000 on March 21?

above $80,000 on March 22?

above $82,000 on March 22?

42 related outcomes · highlighted = this market

Price History

Price History

-48.3pp

Key Moments

First recorded

84% YES

Mar 1, 2026

Trough probability

23% YES — lowest in period

Mar 17, 2026

Dropped below 50% — now favored NO

44%

Mar 4, 2026

Crossed 50% — now favored YES

51%

Mar 5, 2026

Dropped below 50% — now favored NO

49%

Mar 13, 2026

Dropped below 50% — now favored NO

49%

Mar 14, 2026

Crossed 50% — now favored YES

53%

Mar 19, 2026

Biggest move: -34.8pp

78% → 44%

Mar 4, 2026

Peak probability

97% YES — highest in period

Mar 1, 2026

Current

36% YES (-0.1pp recent)

Mar 21, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

%

1%Market: YES 36%99%

Buy YES@ 36¢

-1.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 64¢

Edge

+0.5%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly1.0%

½ Kelly0.5%

Buy NO—+0.5% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 1.0%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in March?" at 36% YES / 64% NO. In the last 24 hours, $779K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 36%. The bid-ask spread is 0.60 percentage points. The market closes on April 1, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in March?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 36%, NO 64%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1473072

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Venue Divergence

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Event Cluster

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