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Markets/Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 on March 21?
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Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 on March 21?

Closes March 22, 2026

Polymarket Price

1%YES
99%NO

Volume 24h

$43K

Liquidity

$13K

Bid / Ask

1% / 1%

Spread

0.20pp

Expert Signal

2%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+37.9pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Event Distribution

Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in March?

March

Full event →
above $64,000 on March 22?
100%
above $62,000 on March 22?
100%
above $66,000 on March 22?
100%
above $64,000 on March 23?
99%
above $68,000 on March 22?
98%
above $66,000 on March 23?
97%
above $70,000 on March 22?
63%
above $70,000 on March 23?
56%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in March?
37%
above $72,000 on March 23?
23%
$80,000 in March?
14%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in March?
11%
above $74,000 on March 23?
6%
above $72,000 on March 22?
6%
$85,000 in March?
3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March?
3%
$72,000 on March 21?
1%
above $76,000 on March 23?
1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in March?
1%
$90,000 in March?
1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in March?
1%
$95,000 in March?
0%
$100,000 in March?
0%
$73,000 on March 21?
0%
$105,000 in March?
0%
$150,000 in March?
0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in March?
0%
$110,000 in March?
0%
above $74,000 on March 22?
0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 in March?
0%
above $82,000 on March 23?
0%
above $76,000 on March 22?
0%
less than $62,000 on March 22?
0%
above $84,000 on March 23?
0%
$74,000 on March 21?
0%
$75,000 on March 21?
0%
above $78,000 on March 22?
0%
$86,000 March 16-22?
0%
above $80,000 on March 22?
0%
above $82,000 on March 22?
0%
$76,000 on March 21?
0%
$77,000 on March 21?
0%

42 related outcomes · highlighted = this market

Price History

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Price History

-50.2pp

Key Moments

First recorded

52% YES

Mar 21, 2026

Dropped below 50% — now favored NO

13%

Mar 21, 2026

Biggest move: -39.0pp

52% → 13%

Mar 21, 2026

Current

1% YES (-0.8pp recent)

Mar 21, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 1%99%
Buy YES@ 1¢

-31.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 99¢
Edge

+0.5%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly31.0%
½ Kelly15.5%
Buy NO—+0.5% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 31.0%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 on March 21?" at 1% YES / 99% NO. In the last 24 hours, $43K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The bid-ask spread is 0.20 percentage points. The market closes on March 22, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 on March 21?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 1%, NO 99%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1668597

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Venue Divergence

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Correlated Markets

Markets whose prices move with this one.

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Event Cluster

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