Will Howard Lutnick leave the Trump administration before 2027?
Closes December 31, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$2K
Liquidity
$15K
Bid / Ask
50% / 57%
Spread
7.00pp
Expert Signal
56%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Howard Lutnick leave the Trump administration before 2027?" at 56% YES / 44% NO. In the last 24 hours, $2K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 56%. The bid-ask spread is 7.00 percentage points. The market closes on December 31, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-04). "Will Howard Lutnick leave the Trump administration before 2027?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 56%, NO 44%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/666665
This event has 8 active outcome markets. Kash Patel leave the Trump administration bef: 76%, Tulsi Gabbard leave the Trump administration : 65%, Kristi Noem leave the Trump administration be: 57%.
Howard Lutnick leave the Trump administration before 20
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
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Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+0.9%
EV per $ wagered
-1.1%
EV per $ wagered
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Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this