Will J.J. Spaun win the 2026 Masters tournament?
Closes April 13, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$18K
Liquidity
$110K
Bid / Ask
1% / 2%
Spread
0.20pp
Expert Signal
2%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will J.J. Spaun win the 2026 Masters tournament?" at 1% YES / 99% NO. In the last 24 hours, $18K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The bid-ask spread is 0.20 percentage points. The market closes on April 13, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-07). "Will J.J. Spaun win the 2026 Masters tournament?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 1%, NO 99%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/568693
This event has 87 active outcome markets. Scottie Scheffler: 14%, Jon Rahm: 8%, Bryson Dechambeau: 7%.
J.J. Spaun win the 2026 Masters tournament?
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Key Moments
First recorded
46% YES
Apr 7, 2026
Trough probability
1% YES — lowest in period
Apr 7, 2026
Biggest move: -41.7pp
46% → 4%
Apr 7, 2026
Current
1% YES (-0.1pp recent)
Apr 7, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
-28.6%
EV per $ wagered
+0.4%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this