Markets/Will Jon Rahm win the 2026 Masters tournament?

Will Jon Rahm win the 2026 Masters tournament?

Data as of Mar 21, 2026, 12:27 AM UTC

Closes April 13, 2026

Polymarket Price

6%YES

94%NO

Volume 24h

$4K

Liquidity

$67K

Bid / Ask

6% / 7%

Spread

0.20pp

Expert Signal

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence0%

methodmarket

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Event Distribution

Will Tom Kim win the 2026 Masters tournament?

2026

Full event →

the 2026 Masters tournament?

18%

the 2026 Masters tournament?

10%

the 2026 Masters tournament?

59 related outcomes · highlighted = this market

Price History

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Price History

+1.9pp

Key Moments

First recorded

5% YES

Feb 24, 2026

Current

7% YES (+0.1pp recent)

Mar 20, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 6%99%

Buy YES@ 6¢

-6.3%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 94¢

Edge

+0.4%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly6.3%

½ Kelly3.1%

Buy NO—+0.4% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 6.3%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Jon Rahm win the 2026 Masters tournament?" at 6% YES / 94% NO. In the last 24 hours, $4K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 6%. The bid-ask spread is 0.20 percentage points. The market closes on April 13, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will Jon Rahm win the 2026 Masters tournament?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 6%, NO 94%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/568632