Will Kash Patel leave the Trump administration before 2027?
Closes December 31, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$248
Liquidity
$1K
Bid / Ask
32% / 68%
Spread
36.00pp
Expert Signal
50%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Kash Patel leave the Trump administration before 2027?" at 50% YES / 50% NO. In the last 24 hours, $248 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 50%. The bid-ask spread is 36.00 percentage points. The market closes on December 31, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-02). "Will Kash Patel leave the Trump administration before 2027?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 50%, NO 50%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/666667
This event has 10 active outcome markets. Kristi Noem leave the Trump administration be: 58%, Tulsi Gabbard leave the Trump administration : 51%, Kash Patel leave the Trump administration bef: 50%.
Kash Patel leave the Trump administration before 2027?
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+0.0%
EV per $ wagered
+0.0%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this