Will Kuwait strike Iran by March 31?
Closes March 31, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$5K
Liquidity
$10K
Bid / Ask
4% / 4%
Spread
0.40pp
Expert Signal
4%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
Will UK strike Iran by March 31?
March
22 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
13% YES
Mar 2, 2026
Trough probability
3% YES — lowest in period
Mar 15, 2026
Biggest move: +29.0pp
13% → 42%
Mar 3, 2026
Peak probability
42% YES — highest in period
Mar 3, 2026
Current
4% YES (+0.0pp recent)
Mar 21, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
-2.4%
EV per $ wagered
+0.1%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Kuwait strike Iran by March 31?" at 4% YES / 96% NO. In the last 24 hours, $5K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 4%. The bid-ask spread is 0.40 percentage points. The market closes on March 31, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will Kuwait strike Iran by March 31?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 4%, NO 96%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1483694
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Venue Divergence
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Correlated Markets
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Event Cluster
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