Will Oman strike Iran by April 30?
Closes April 30, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$3K
Liquidity
$9K
Bid / Ask
2% / 2%
Spread
0.10pp
Expert Signal
2%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Oman strike Iran by April 30?" at 1% YES / 99% NO. In the last 24 hours, $3K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The bid-ask spread is 0.10 percentage points. The market closes on April 30, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-07). "Will Oman strike Iran by April 30?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 1%, NO 99%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1693059
This event has 12 active outcome markets. December 31: 75%, June 30: 56%, May 31: 46%.
Oman strike Iran by April 30?
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Key Moments
First recorded
1% YES
Apr 7, 2026
Current
1% YES (+0.5pp recent)
Apr 7, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
-31.0%
EV per $ wagered
+0.5%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this