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Markets/Will Qatar strike Iran by March 31?
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Will Qatar strike Iran by March 31?

Polymarket Price

9%YES
91%NO

Volume 24h

$13K

Liquidity

$10K

Bid / Ask

9% / 9%

Spread

0.20pp

Expert Signal

9%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Event Distribution

Will UK strike Iran by March 31?

March

Full event →
Will Iran strike UAE again in March?
95%
Will Iran strike Bahrain again in March?
72%
Will Iran strike Iraq again in March?
41%
Will Iran strike Jordan again in March?
41%
Will Iran strike Lebanon in March?
41%
Will Iran strike Oman again in March?
21%
Will another country strike Iran by March 31?
16%
Will UAE strike Iran by March 31?
14%
Will Iran strike Turkey in March?
9%
Will Qatar strike Iran by March 31?
9%
Will Iran strike Azerbaijan by March 31?
8%
Will Iran strike Syria in March?
8%
Will Bahrain strike Iran by March 31?
4%
Will Iran strike Pakistan in March?
4%
Will UK strike Iran by March 31?
4%
Will Kuwait strike Iran by March 31?
4%
Will any E.U. country strike Iran by March 31
4%
Will Turkey strike Iran by March 31?
3%
Will Iran strike Cyprus in March?
3%
Will Iran strike Yemen in March?
3%
Will Jordan strike Iran by March 31?
2%
Will Iran strike Ukraine by March 31?
2%
Will Iran strike Italy by March 31?
1%
Will Oman strike Iran by March 31?
1%
Will Iran strike Poland by March 31?
1%

25 related outcomes · highlighted = this market

Price History

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Price History

-0.9pp

Key Moments

First recorded

10% YES

Mar 1, 2026

Trough probability

4% YES — lowest in period

Mar 20, 2026

Crossed 50% — now favored YES

76%

Mar 3, 2026

Biggest move: +44.0pp

32% → 76%

Mar 3, 2026

Peak probability

76% YES — highest in period

Mar 3, 2026

Current

9% YES (-0.5pp recent)

Mar 23, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 9%99%
Buy YES@ 9¢
Edge

+4.7%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.4%
½ Kelly0.2%
Buy NO@ 91¢

-0.4%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+4.7% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.4%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Qatar strike Iran by March 31?" at 9% YES / 91% NO. In the last 24 hours, $13K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 9%. The bid-ask spread is 0.20 percentage points.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-23). "Will Qatar strike Iran by March 31?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 9%, NO 91%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1472017

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Correlated Markets

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