Will Richard Branson be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?
Closes June 30, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$33K
Liquidity
$6K
Bid / Ask
21% / 26%
Spread
5.00pp
Expert Signal
23%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Richard Branson be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?" at 23% YES / 77% NO. In the last 24 hours, $33K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 23%. The bid-ask spread is 5.00 percentage points. The market closes on June 30, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-31). "Will Richard Branson be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 23%, NO 77%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1370729
This event has 13 active outcome markets. Richard Branson be confirmed to have visited : 23%, Kevin Spacey be confirmed to have visited Eps: 20%, Steve Bannon be confirmed to have visited Eps: 13%.
Richard Branson be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Key Moments
First recorded
13% YES
Mar 29, 2026
Biggest move: +28.5pp
13% → 42%
Mar 31, 2026
Peak probability
42% YES — highest in period
Mar 31, 2026
Current
24% YES (+0.5pp recent)
Mar 31, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+2.2%
EV per $ wagered
-0.6%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this