Markets/Will the DHS shutdown end between April 13-16, 2026?

Will the DHS shutdown end between April 13-16, 2026?

Data as of Mar 29, 2026, 10:49 PM UTC

Closes April 30, 2026

Polymarket Price

12%YES

88%NO

Volume 24h

$1K

Liquidity

$11K

Bid / Ask

12% / 13%

Spread

0.60pp

Expert Signal

12%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Event Distribution

Will the DHS shutdown end before April 1, 2026?

April 2026

Full event →

Will the DHS shutdown end after April 30, 202

57%

Will the DHS shutdown end between April 13-16

12%

Will the DHS shutdown end between April 17-20

12%

Will the DHS shutdown end between April 21-24

12%

Will the DHS shutdown end between April 25-28

Will the DHS shutdown end between April 29-30

Will the DHS shutdown end before April 1, 202

Will the DHS shutdown end between April 9-12,

Will the DHS shutdown end between April 1-4,

Will the DHS shutdown end between April 5-8,

10 related outcomes · highlighted = this market

Price History

Export CSV

Price History

-2.9pp

Key Moments

First recorded

15% YES

Mar 29, 2026

Current

12% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Mar 29, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 12%99%

Buy YES@ 12¢

-3.2%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 88¢

Edge

+0.5%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly3.2%

½ Kelly1.6%

Buy NO—+0.5% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 3.2%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will the DHS shutdown end between April 13-16, 2026?" at 12% YES / 88% NO. In the last 24 hours, $1K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 12%. The bid-ask spread is 0.60 percentage points. The market closes on April 30, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-29). "Will the DHS shutdown end between April 13-16, 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 12%, NO 88%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1723669

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