Markets/Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 1.5% or lower before 2027?

Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 1.5% or lower before 2027?

Data as of Mar 29, 2026, 10:47 PM UTC

Closes December 31, 2026

Polymarket Price

12%YES

89%NO

Volume 24h

$24K

Liquidity

$15K

Bid / Ask

10% / 13%

Spread

3.00pp

Expert Signal

12%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Event Distribution

Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 0% or lower before 2027?

2027

Full event →

2.0% or lower before 2027?

13%

1.5% or lower before 2027?

12%

4.25% or higher before 2027?

10%

1.75% or lower before 2027?

0.5% or lower before 2027?

0.25% or lower before 2027?

5.25% or higher before 2027?

0% or lower before 2027?

4.5% or higher before 2027?

5.5% or higher before 2027?

4.75% or higher before 2027?

5.0% or higher before 2027?

12 related outcomes · highlighted = this market

Price History

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Price History

+1.5pp

Key Moments

First recorded

11% YES

Mar 29, 2026

Current

12% YES (+1.0pp recent)

Mar 29, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 12%99%

Buy YES@ 12¢

Edge

+4.3%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.6%

½ Kelly0.3%

Buy NO@ 89¢

-0.6%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+4.3% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.6%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 1.5% or lower before 2027?" at 12% YES / 88% NO. In the last 24 hours, $24K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 12%. The bid-ask spread is 3.00 percentage points. The market closes on December 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-29). "Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 1.5% or lower before 2027?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 12%, NO 88%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/690206

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