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Markets/Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 1?
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Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 1?

Closes April 1, 2026

Polymarket Price

1%YES
99%NO

Volume 24h

$6K

Liquidity

$20K

Bid / Ask

1% / 1%

Spread

0.20pp

Expert Signal

2%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+81.8pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Event Distribution

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 1?

April

Full event →
above $60,000 on April 1?
99%
above $62,000 on April 1?
96%
above $64,000 on April 1?
86%
above $66,000 on April 1?
62%
above $68,000 on April 1?
29%
above $70,000 on April 1?
8%
above $72,000 on April 1?
1%
above $74,000 on April 1?
1%
above $78,000 on April 1?
0%
above $80,000 on April 1?
0%

10 related outcomes · highlighted = this market

Price History

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Price History

-0.2pp

Key Moments

First recorded

1% YES

Mar 30, 2026

Current

1% YES (-0.2pp recent)

Mar 30, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 1%99%
Buy YES@ 1¢

-9.1%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 99¢
Edge

+0.1%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly9.1%
½ Kelly4.5%
Buy NO—+0.1% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 9.1%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 1?" at 1% YES / 99% NO. In the last 24 hours, $6K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The bid-ask spread is 0.20 percentage points. The market closes on April 1, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-30). "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 1?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 1%, NO 99%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1717495

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.