Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 16?
Closes April 16, 2026
ForecastMind sees this +1.0pp above current market price; market at 62% may be underpriced with macro signals showing BTC +0.5% ↑, ETH -1.0% ↓, S&P +1.0% ↑ (low confidence — limited signal data).
Signal breakdown
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$10K
Liquidity
$25K
Bid / Ask
64% / 65%
Spread
1.00pp
Expert Signal
63%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 16?" at 57% YES / 43% NO. In the last 24 hours, $10K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 63%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 16, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-14). "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 16?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 57%, NO 43%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1928798
This event has 39 active outcome markets. price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 14: 100%, price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 14: 100%, price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 14: 100%.
price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 16?
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Key Moments
First recorded
75% YES
Apr 14, 2026
Biggest move: -13.5pp
73% → 59%
Apr 14, 2026
Current
59% YES (-13.5pp recent)
Apr 14, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
-0.9%
EV per $ wagered
+1.2%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this