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Markets/Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 23?
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Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 23?

Closes March 23, 2026

Polymarket Price

1%YES
99%NO

Volume 24h

$12K

Liquidity

$22K

Bid / Ask

1% / 1%

Spread

0.10pp

Expert Signal

2%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+53.9pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Event Distribution

Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in March?

March

Full event →
above $64,000 on March 22?
100%
above $62,000 on March 22?
100%
above $66,000 on March 22?
100%
above $64,000 on March 23?
99%
above $68,000 on March 22?
98%
above $66,000 on March 23?
97%
above $70,000 on March 22?
63%
above $70,000 on March 23?
56%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in March?
37%
above $72,000 on March 23?
23%
$80,000 in March?
14%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in March?
11%
above $74,000 on March 23?
6%
above $72,000 on March 22?
6%
$85,000 in March?
3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March?
3%
$72,000 on March 21?
1%
above $76,000 on March 23?
1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in March?
1%
$90,000 in March?
1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in March?
1%
$95,000 in March?
0%
$100,000 in March?
0%
$73,000 on March 21?
0%
$105,000 in March?
0%
$150,000 in March?
0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in March?
0%
$110,000 in March?
0%
above $74,000 on March 22?
0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 in March?
0%
above $82,000 on March 23?
0%
above $76,000 on March 22?
0%
less than $62,000 on March 22?
0%
above $84,000 on March 23?
0%
$74,000 on March 21?
0%
$75,000 on March 21?
0%
above $78,000 on March 22?
0%
$86,000 March 16-22?
0%
above $80,000 on March 22?
0%
above $82,000 on March 22?
0%
$76,000 on March 21?
0%
$77,000 on March 21?
0%

42 related outcomes · highlighted = this market

Price History

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Price History

-0.4pp

Key Moments

First recorded

2% YES

Mar 21, 2026

Current

1% YES (+0.1pp recent)

Mar 21, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 1%99%
Buy YES@ 1¢

-23.1%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 99¢
Edge

+0.3%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly23.1%
½ Kelly11.5%
Buy NO—+0.3% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 23.1%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 23?" at 1% YES / 99% NO. In the last 24 hours, $12K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The bid-ask spread is 0.10 percentage points. The market closes on March 23, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 23?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 1%, NO 99%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1607690

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