Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on April 16?
Closes April 16, 2026
ForecastMind sees this +1.0pp above current market price; market at 29% may be underpriced with macro signals showing BTC +0.6% ↑, ETH -1.2% ↓, S&P +1.0% ↑ (low confidence — limited signal data).
Signal breakdown
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$5K
Liquidity
$13K
Bid / Ask
28% / 30%
Spread
2.20pp
Expert Signal
24%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on April 16?" at 19% YES / 81% NO. In the last 24 hours, $5K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 24%. The bid-ask spread is 2.20 percentage points. The market closes on April 16, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-14). "Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on April 16?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 19%, NO 81%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1928761
This event has 15 active outcome markets. Ethereum reach $2,400 in April?: 100%, price of Ethereum be between $2,300 and $2,40: 100%, Ethereum reach $2,600 in April?: 39%.
price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on April 16?
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Key Moments
First recorded
44% YES
Apr 14, 2026
Biggest move: -12.7pp
38% → 25%
Apr 14, 2026
Current
25% YES (-12.7pp recent)
Apr 14, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+0.5%
EV per $ wagered
-0.1%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this