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Markets/Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on April 16?
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Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on April 16?

Closes April 16, 2026

ForecastMind Intelligence Score
Low confidence · 1 signal
9%FIS
+1ppvs market 7%
underpriced

ForecastMind sees this +1.0pp above current market price; market at 7% may be underpriced with macro signals showing BTC +0.5% ↑, ETH -1.0% ↓, S&P +1.0% ↑ (low confidence — limited signal data).

Signal breakdown

MacroBTC +0.5% ↑, ETH -1.0% ↓, S&P +1.0% ↑
+1.0pp
Live compute05:25 PM

Polymarket Price

5%YES
95%NO

Volume 24h

$2K

Liquidity

$14K

Bid / Ask

7% / 8%

Spread

0.60pp

Expert Signal

2%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market-67.1pp
confidence40%
methodbayesian

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on April 16?" at 5% YES / 95% NO. In the last 24 hours, $2K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The bid-ask spread is 0.60 percentage points. The market closes on April 16, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-14). "Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on April 16?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 5%, NO 95%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1928764

Outcome Markets28 markets

This event has 28 active outcome markets. price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on April 16: 100%, price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on April 14: 100%, price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on April 14: 100%.

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-9.4pp

Key Moments

First recorded

16% YES

Apr 14, 2026

Biggest move: -6.2pp

13% → 6%

Apr 14, 2026

Current

6% YES (-6.2pp recent)

Apr 14, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 5%99%
Buy YES@ 5¢
Edge

+5.3%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.3%
½ Kelly0.1%
Buy NO@ 95¢

-0.3%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES+5.3% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.3%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this