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Markets/Will the US x Iran ceasefire be extended by April 18, 2026?
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Will the US x Iran ceasefire be extended by April 18, 2026?

23%YES
77%NO
Vol 24h$4K
Liquidity$14K
Bid / Ask21% / 24%
Spread3.00pp
ClosesApr 21, 2026

FM Estimate

21%

Market Price

23%
↑ Overpriced 1.8pp
Macro fundamentals-2.9pp
Historical patterns-1.0pp
low confidence · 2 signals

Price History · 30 days

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Price History

-3.5pp

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will the US x Iran ceasefire be extended by April 18, 2026?" at 23% YES / 77% NO. In the last 24 hours, $4K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 23%. The bid-ask spread is 3.00pp. The market closes on April 21, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-16). "Will the US x Iran ceasefire be extended by April 18, 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 23%, NO 77%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1992058