Will Trump say "Paid a big price" or "Paying a big price" this week? (March 29)
Closes March 29, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$2K
Liquidity
$460
Bid / Ask
7% / 20%
Spread
13.00pp
Expert Signal
14%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
Will Trump say "Boeing" this week? (March 29)
March
11 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Key Moments
First recorded
26% YES
Mar 27, 2026
Biggest move: -8.0pp
27% → 19%
Mar 27, 2026
Current
13% YES (-7.0pp recent)
Mar 27, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+3.7%
EV per $ wagered
-0.6%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Trump say "Paid a big price" or "Paying a big price" this week? (March 29)" at 14% YES / 86% NO. In the last 24 hours, $2K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 14%. The bid-ask spread is 13.00 percentage points. The market closes on March 29, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-27). "Will Trump say "Paid a big price" or "Paying a big price" this week? (March 29)." Prediction market snapshot: YES 14%, NO 86%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1665134
Go Deeper
Entity Hub
All related markets, signals, and news in one view.
Forecaster Signals
See all markets where experts diverge from Polymarket prices.
Venue Divergence
Where Polymarket, Kalshi, and PredictIt disagree most.
Correlated Markets
Markets whose prices move with this one.
Event Cluster
All markets about the same event across venues.
Download 90d CSV
Full price history for your own analysis.