Will Turkey strike Iran by March 31?
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$3K
Liquidity
$17K
Bid / Ask
3% / 4%
Spread
0.70pp
Expert Signal
3%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
Will UK strike Iran by March 31?
March
25 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
3% YES
Mar 1, 2026
Biggest move: +12.7pp
5% → 18%
Mar 4, 2026
Peak probability
18% YES — highest in period
Mar 4, 2026
Current
3% YES (+0.3pp recent)
Mar 23, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
-13.0%
EV per $ wagered
+0.5%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Turkey strike Iran by March 31?" at 3% YES / 97% NO. In the last 24 hours, $3K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 3%. The bid-ask spread is 0.70 percentage points.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-23). "Will Turkey strike Iran by March 31?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 3%, NO 97%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1472014
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Venue Divergence
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Correlated Markets
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Event Cluster
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