Will UK strike Iran by March 31?
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$41K
Liquidity
$15K
Bid / Ask
4% / 4%
Spread
0.50pp
Expert Signal
4%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
Will UK strike Iran by March 31?
March
23 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
18% YES
Mar 1, 2026
Trough probability
1% YES — lowest in period
Mar 20, 2026
Biggest move: +21.5pp
18% → 39%
Mar 5, 2026
Peak probability
39% YES — highest in period
Mar 5, 2026
Current
4% YES (-0.3pp recent)
Mar 23, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
-3.6%
EV per $ wagered
+0.2%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will UK strike Iran by March 31?" at 4% YES / 96% NO. In the last 24 hours, $41K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 4%. The bid-ask spread is 0.50 percentage points.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-23). "Will UK strike Iran by March 31?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 4%, NO 96%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1472011
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