Will Pete Hegseth be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?
Closes December 31, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$163K
Liquidity
$14K
Bid / Ask
8% / 10%
Spread
1.70pp
Expert Signal
9%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
Will no one leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?
2027
24 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
2% YES
Mar 21, 2026
Biggest move: +16.0pp
4% → 20%
Mar 26, 2026
Peak probability
20% YES — highest in period
Mar 26, 2026
Current
10% YES (+0.4pp recent)
Mar 30, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+1.7%
EV per $ wagered
-0.2%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Pete Hegseth be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?" at 9% YES / 91% NO. In the last 24 hours, $163K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 9%. The bid-ask spread is 1.70 percentage points. The market closes on December 31, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-30). "Will Pete Hegseth be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 9%, NO 91%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1509644
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Forecaster Signals
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Venue Divergence
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Correlated Markets
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Event Cluster
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