Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar?
Closes June 30, 2026
Markets appear correctly priced driven by ISR positive AGR → -1.0pp avg (n=64) (low confidence — limited signal data).
Signal breakdown
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$3K
Liquidity
$14K
Bid / Ask
2% / 5%
Spread
3.20pp
Expert Signal
3%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar?" at 4% YES / 96% NO. In the last 24 hours, $3K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 3%. The bid-ask spread is 3.20 percentage points. The market closes on June 30, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-07). "Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 4%, NO 96%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1709264
This event has 11 active outcome markets. next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakista: 33%, next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Turkey?: 9%, next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman?: 6%. Implied probability of none resolving YES: ~43%.
next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar?
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Key Moments
First recorded
4% YES
Apr 6, 2026
Current
3% YES (-0.1pp recent)
Apr 6, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+14.3%
EV per $ wagered
-0.5%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this