Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Turkey?
Closes June 30, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$41K
Liquidity
$11K
Bid / Ask
0% / 0%
Spread
0.10pp
Expert Signal
2%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Turkey?" at 0% YES / 100% NO. In the last 24 hours, $41K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The bid-ask spread is 0.10 percentage points. The market closes on June 30, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-09). "Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Turkey?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 0%, NO 100%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1709267
This event has 13 active outcome markets. next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakista: 93%, next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman?: 3%, next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another: 0%. Implied probability of none resolving YES: ~3%.
next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Turkey?
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Key Moments
First recorded
10% YES
Apr 6, 2026
Trough probability
0% YES — lowest in period
Apr 8, 2026
Biggest move: -5.2pp
7% → 2%
Apr 7, 2026
Current
0% YES (+0.0pp recent)
Apr 9, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+0.0%
EV per $ wagered
+0.0%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this