Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman?
Closes June 30, 2026
ForecastMind sees this +0.9pp above current market price; market at 3% may be underpriced with macro signals showing Oil +0.6% ↑, VIX +2.1% ↑, Gold +0.4% ↑ (low confidence — limited signal data).
Signal breakdown
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$61K
Liquidity
$18K
Bid / Ask
3% / 3%
Spread
0.10pp
Expert Signal
2%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman?" at 3% YES / 97% NO. In the last 24 hours, $61K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The bid-ask spread is 0.10 percentage points. The market closes on June 30, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-11). "Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 3%, NO 97%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1709261
This event has 13 active outcome markets. next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakista: 91%, next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman?: 3%, next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Turkey?: 0%. Implied probability of none resolving YES: ~5%.
next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman?
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Key Moments
First recorded
6% YES
Apr 6, 2026
Trough probability
0% YES — lowest in period
Apr 8, 2026
Biggest move: +6.7pp
1% → 8%
Apr 8, 2026
Current
0% YES (+0.0pp recent)
Apr 11, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+15.4%
EV per $ wagered
-0.4%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this