Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?
Closes June 30, 2026
ForecastMind sees this +0.6pp above current market price; market at 4% may be underpriced with macro signals showing Oil +3.7% ↑, VIX +1.1% ↑, Gold +0.2% ↑ (low confidence — limited signal data).
Signal breakdown
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$4K
Liquidity
$10K
Bid / Ask
3% / 5%
Spread
1.70pp
Expert Signal
4%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?" at 4% YES / 96% NO. In the last 24 hours, $4K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 4%. The bid-ask spread is 1.70 percentage points. The market closes on June 30, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-07). "Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 4%, NO 96%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1709265
This event has 11 active outcome markets. next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakista: 33%, next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Turkey?: 9%, next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman?: 6%. Implied probability of none resolving YES: ~43%.
next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Key Moments
First recorded
4% YES
Apr 6, 2026
Current
4% YES (-0.1pp recent)
Apr 6, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
-1.2%
EV per $ wagered
+0.1%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this