Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?
Closes June 30, 2026
Markets appear correctly priced with macro signals showing Oil +1.0% ↑, VIX +1.1% ↑, Gold +0.5% ↑ (low confidence — limited signal data).
Signal breakdown
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$13K
Liquidity
$12K
Bid / Ask
32% / 33%
Spread
1.00pp
Expert Signal
33%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?" at 33% YES / 67% NO. In the last 24 hours, $13K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 33%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on June 30, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-07). "Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 33%, NO 67%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1709274
This event has 11 active outcome markets. next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakista: 33%, next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Turkey?: 9%, next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman?: 6%. Implied probability of none resolving YES: ~43%.
next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Key Moments
First recorded
34% YES
Apr 6, 2026
Current
34% YES (+0.0pp recent)
Apr 6, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+0.0%
EV per $ wagered
+0.0%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this