Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 5?
Closes April 5, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$48K
Liquidity
$23K
Bid / Ask
12% / 14%
Spread
2.00pp
Expert Signal
21%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 5?" at 21% YES / 79% NO. In the last 24 hours, $48K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 21%. The bid-ask spread is 2.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 5, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-03). "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 5?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 21%, NO 79%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1777597
This event has 15 active outcome markets. price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,0: 100%, price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on April 4?: 83%, price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on April 5?: 75%.
price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 5?
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Key Moments
First recorded
32% YES
Mar 29, 2026
Trough probability
18% YES — lowest in period
Apr 3, 2026
Crossed 50% — now favored YES
51%
Mar 31, 2026
Dropped below 50% — now favored NO
48%
Apr 1, 2026
Dropped below 50% — now favored NO
43%
Apr 2, 2026
Biggest move: -30.0pp
59% → 29%
Apr 2, 2026
Peak probability
65% YES — highest in period
Apr 1, 2026
Current
21% YES (+0.0pp recent)
Apr 3, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+0.0%
EV per $ wagered
+0.0%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this