Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 on March 31?
Closes April 1, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$23K
Liquidity
$12K
Bid / Ask
1% / 3%
Spread
1.50pp
Expert Signal
2%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 on March 31?" at 2% YES / 98% NO. In the last 24 hours, $23K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The bid-ask spread is 1.50 percentage points. The market closes on April 1, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-31). "Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 on March 31?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 2%, NO 98%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1800071
This event has 16 active outcome markets. Bitcoin dip to $64,000 March 30-April 5?: 36%, Bitcoin dip to $62,000 March 30-April 5?: 19%, Bitcoin dip to $58,000 March 30-April 5?: 6%. Implied probability of none resolving YES: ~29%.
Bitcoin dip to $64,000 on March 31?
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Key Moments
First recorded
15% YES
Mar 31, 2026
Trough probability
3% YES — lowest in period
Mar 31, 2026
Biggest move: -6.4pp
19% → 13%
Mar 31, 2026
Current
7% YES (+3.9pp recent)
Mar 31, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
-11.1%
EV per $ wagered
+0.3%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this