Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 April 6-12?
Closes April 13, 2026
Markets appear correctly priced with macro signals showing ETH -0.3% ↓, S&P -0.2% ↓ (low confidence — limited signal data).
Signal breakdown
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$23K
Liquidity
$33K
Bid / Ask
4% / 4%
Spread
0.30pp
Expert Signal
4%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 April 6-12?" at 4% YES / 96% NO. In the last 24 hours, $23K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 4%. The bid-ask spread is 0.30 percentage points. The market closes on April 13, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-09). "Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 April 6-12?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 4%, NO 96%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1885993
This event has 15 active outcome markets. Bitcoin reach $75,000 in April?: 56%, Bitcoin reach $74,000 April 6-12?: 25%, Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April?: 16%.
Bitcoin reach $78,000 April 6-12?
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Key Moments
First recorded
50% YES
Apr 6, 2026
Trough probability
3% YES — lowest in period
Apr 7, 2026
Dropped below 50% — now favored NO
4%
Apr 6, 2026
Biggest move: -45.0pp
50% → 5%
Apr 6, 2026
Current
4% YES (+0.3pp recent)
Apr 9, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+2.6%
EV per $ wagered
-0.1%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this