Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 April 6-12?
Closes April 13, 2026
Markets appear correctly priced with macro signals showing BTC -0.3% ↓, ETH -0.1% ↓, S&P +0.2% ↑ (low confidence — limited signal data).
Signal breakdown
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$13K
Liquidity
$32K
Bid / Ask
16% / 17%
Spread
1.00pp
Expert Signal
16%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 April 6-12?" at 16% YES / 84% NO. In the last 24 hours, $13K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 16%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 13, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-07). "Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 April 6-12?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 16%, NO 84%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1885999
This event has 16 active outcome markets. Bitcoin reach $75,000 in April?: 41%, Bitcoin reach $72,000 April 6-12?: 39%, Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April?: 17%.
Bitcoin reach $74,000 April 6-12?
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Key Moments
First recorded
18% YES
Apr 6, 2026
Current
14% YES (+0.0pp recent)
Apr 7, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+0.0%
EV per $ wagered
+0.0%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this