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Markets/Will Jon Gray-Ginsberg win the 2026 Colorado Governor Republican primary election?
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Will Jon Gray-Ginsberg win the 2026 Colorado Governor Republican primary election?

Closes June 30, 2026

Polymarket Price

2%YES
98%NO

Volume 24h

$95

Liquidity

$10K

Bid / Ask

1% / 2%

Spread

1.20pp

Expert Signal

2%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+11.1pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Jon Gray-Ginsberg win the 2026 Colorado Governor Republican primary election?" at 2% YES / 98% NO. In the last 24 hours, $95 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The bid-ask spread is 1.20 percentage points. The market closes on June 30, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-05). "Will Jon Gray-Ginsberg win the 2026 Colorado Governor Republican primary election?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 2%, NO 98%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/825862

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

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Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 2%99%
Buy YES@ 2¢
Edge

+11.1%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.2%
½ Kelly0.1%
Buy NO@ 98¢

-0.2%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES+11.1% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.2%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this