Israel strike on Yemen by April 30, 2026?
Closes April 30, 2026
⬡ Cross-venue entityPolymarket Price
Volume 24h
$9K
Liquidity
$11K
Bid / Ask
77% / 80%
Spread
3.00pp
Expert Signal
79%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
Will Israel strike 3 countries in 2026?
2026
20 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Key Moments
First recorded
91% YES
Mar 28, 2026
Current
83% YES (-2.0pp recent)
Mar 29, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+0.6%
EV per $ wagered
-2.3%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Israel strike on Yemen by April 30, 2026?" at 79% YES / 21% NO. In the last 24 hours, $9K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 79%. The bid-ask spread is 3.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 30, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-30). "Israel strike on Yemen by April 30, 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 79%, NO 21%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1641497
Go Deeper
Entity Hub
All related markets, signals, and news in one view.
Forecaster Signals
See all markets where experts diverge from Polymarket prices.
Venue Divergence
Where Polymarket, Kalshi, and PredictIt disagree most.
Correlated Markets
Markets whose prices move with this one.
Event Cluster
All markets about the same event across venues.
Download 90d CSV
Full price history for your own analysis.