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Markets/Will another country strike Iran by March 31?

Will another country strike Iran by March 31?

Data as of Mar 21, 2026, 12:29 AM UTC

Closes March 31, 2026

Polymarket Price

22%YES

79%NO

Volume 24h

$59K

Liquidity

$47K

Bid / Ask

21% / 22%

Spread

1.00pp

Expert Signal

22%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence0%

methodmarket

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Event Distribution

Will UK strike Iran by March 31?

March

Will Iran strike UAE again in March?

Will Iran strike Bahrain again in March?

Will Iran strike Iraq again in March?

Will Iran strike Jordan again in March?

Will another country strike Iran by March 31?

22%

Will Iran strike Oman again in March?

Will Iran strike Azerbaijan by March 31?

Will Iran strike Turkey in March?

Will Iran strike Lebanon in March?

Will Bahrain strike Iran by March 31?

Will Iran strike Syria in March?

Will Qatar strike Iran by March 31?

Will Kuwait strike Iran by March 31?

Will Iran strike Cyprus in March?

Will Iran strike Pakistan in March?

Will Turkey strike Iran by March 31?

Will any E.U. country strike Iran by March 31

Will UK strike Iran by March 31?

Will Jordan strike Iran by March 31?

Will Iran strike Ukraine by March 31?

Will Oman strike Iran by March 31?

Will Iran strike Poland by March 31?

22 related outcomes · highlighted = this market

Price History

Price History

-44.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

64% YES

Mar 1, 2026

Trough probability

18% YES — lowest in period

Mar 18, 2026

Dropped below 50% — now favored NO

49%

Mar 6, 2026

Dropped below 50% — now favored NO

49%

Mar 7, 2026

Crossed 50% — now favored YES

87%

Mar 8, 2026

Dropped below 50% — now favored NO

49%

Mar 9, 2026

Biggest move: +44.0pp

43% → 87%

Mar 8, 2026

Peak probability

87% YES — highest in period

Mar 8, 2026

Current

20% YES (+1.5pp recent)

Mar 18, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

%

1%Market: YES 22%99%

Buy YES@ 22¢

Edge

+2.3%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.6%

½ Kelly0.3%

Buy NO@ 79¢

-0.6%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+2.3% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.6%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will another country strike Iran by March 31?" at 22% YES / 78% NO. In the last 24 hours, $59K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 22%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on March 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will another country strike Iran by March 31?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 22%, NO 78%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1472026

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