ForecastMind
Markets/Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on April 4?
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Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on April 4?

Closes April 5, 2026

Polymarket Price

4%YES
97%NO

Volume 24h

$34K

Liquidity

$14K

Bid / Ask

3% / 4%

Spread

1.00pp

Expert Signal

3%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market-23.7pp
confidence50%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on April 4?" at 4% YES / 96% NO. In the last 24 hours, $34K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 3%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 5, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-05). "Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on April 4?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 4%, NO 96%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1854194

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-19.6pp

Key Moments

First recorded

28% YES

Apr 4, 2026

Biggest move: -7.3pp

25% → 18%

Apr 4, 2026

Current

8% YES (-2.4pp recent)

Apr 4, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 4%99%
Buy YES@ 4¢
Edge

+14.3%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.5%
½ Kelly0.3%
Buy NO@ 97¢

-0.5%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES+14.3% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.5%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this