Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 on April 1?
Closes April 2, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$65K
Liquidity
$23K
Bid / Ask
9% / 11%
Spread
2.00pp
Expert Signal
11%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 on April 1?" at 10% YES / 90% NO. In the last 24 hours, $65K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 11%. The bid-ask spread is 2.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 2, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-01). "Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 on April 1?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 10%, NO 90%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1813909
This event has 14 active outcome markets. Bitcoin reach $70,000 March 30-April 5?: 60%, Bitcoin dip to $64,000 March 30-April 5?: 27%, Bitcoin reach $72,000 March 30-April 5?: 27%.
Bitcoin reach $70,000 on April 1?
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Key Moments
First recorded
29% YES
Apr 1, 2026
Biggest move: -22.0pp
32% → 10%
Apr 1, 2026
Peak probability
37% YES — highest in period
Apr 1, 2026
Current
10% YES (-22.0pp recent)
Apr 1, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+5.3%
EV per $ wagered
-0.6%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this