Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 March 30-April 5?
Closes April 6, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$18K
Liquidity
$34K
Bid / Ask
12% / 16%
Spread
4.00pp
Expert Signal
14%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 March 30-April 5?" at 14% YES / 86% NO. In the last 24 hours, $18K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 14%. The bid-ask spread is 4.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 6, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-01). "Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 March 30-April 5?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 14%, NO 86%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1786323
This event has 13 active outcome markets. Bitcoin reach $70,000 March 30-April 5?: 74%, Bitcoin reach $72,000 March 30-April 5?: 36%, Bitcoin dip to $64,000 March 30-April 5?: 24%.
Bitcoin reach $74,000 March 30-April 5?
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Key Moments
First recorded
53% YES
Mar 30, 2026
Trough probability
6% YES — lowest in period
Mar 31, 2026
Dropped below 50% — now favored NO
11%
Mar 30, 2026
Biggest move: -37.5pp
53% → 16%
Mar 30, 2026
Current
15% YES (-4.0pp recent)
Apr 1, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+0.0%
EV per $ wagered
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EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this