Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 on April 13?
Closes April 14, 2026
ForecastMind sees this +5.4pp above current market price; market at 6% may be underpriced with macro signals showing BTC +1.8% ↑, ETH +1.0% ↑, S&P +0.7% ↑ (low confidence — limited signal data).
Signal breakdown
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$21K
Liquidity
$13K
Bid / Ask
4% / 7%
Spread
2.70pp
Expert Signal
6%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 on April 13?" at 6% YES / 94% NO. In the last 24 hours, $21K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 6%. The bid-ask spread is 2.70 percentage points. The market closes on April 14, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-13). "Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 on April 13?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 6%, NO 94%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1965070
This event has 19 active outcome markets. Bitcoin Up or Down on April 13?: 100%, Bitcoin reach $72,000 on April 13?: 100%, Bitcoin reach $75,000 in April?: 60%.
Bitcoin reach $74,000 on April 13?
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Key Moments
First recorded
3% YES
Apr 13, 2026
Biggest move: -7.2pp
13% → 6%
Apr 13, 2026
Peak probability
13% YES — highest in period
Apr 13, 2026
Current
6% YES (-7.2pp recent)
Apr 13, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+5.3%
EV per $ wagered
-0.3%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this