Will Carlos Álvarez finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
Closes April 12, 2026
Markets appear correctly priced with macro signals showing VIX +1.1% ↑, S&P +0.2% ↑, DXY -0.1% ↓ (low confidence — limited signal data).
Signal breakdown
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$5K
Liquidity
$13K
Bid / Ask
12% / 12%
Spread
0.40pp
Expert Signal
12%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Carlos Álvarez finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?" at 12% YES / 88% NO. In the last 24 hours, $5K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 12%. The bid-ask spread is 0.40 percentage points. The market closes on April 12, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-07). "Will Carlos Álvarez finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 12%, NO 88%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1656640
This event has 31 active outcome markets. Keiko Fujimori finish in first place in the f: 77%, Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in th: 65%, Rafael López Aliaga finish in second place in: 25%.
Carlos Álvarez finish in first place in the first round
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Key Moments
First recorded
12% YES
Apr 6, 2026
Current
12% YES (+0.0pp recent)
Apr 7, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
-1.6%
EV per $ wagered
+0.2%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this