Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
Closes April 12, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$146
Liquidity
$4K
Bid / Ask
18% / 27%
Spread
9.30pp
Expert Signal
22%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?" at 22% YES / 78% NO. In the last 24 hours, $146 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 22%. The bid-ask spread is 9.30 percentage points. The market closes on April 12, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-31). "Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 22%, NO 78%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1656658
This event has 53 active outcome markets. Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in th: 57%, Ronaldo Caiado finish in third place in the f: 37%, Renan Santos finish in third place in the fir: 34%.
Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in first place in the f
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
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Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
-1.1%
EV per $ wagered
+0.3%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this