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Markets/Will Ricardo Belmont finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
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Will Ricardo Belmont finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Closes April 12, 2026

Polymarket Price

7%YES
94%NO

Volume 24h

$128

Liquidity

$5K

Bid / Ask

1% / 12%

Spread

10.40pp

Expert Signal

7%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Event Distribution

Will José Luna finish in third place in the first…

2026

Full event →
Will Keiko Fujimori finish in second place in
25%
Will Romeu Zema finish in third place in the
16%
Will Fernando Olivera finish in second place
14%
Will Enrique Valderrama finish in second plac
14%
Will Roberto Chiabra finish in third place in
13%
Will Alfonso López Chau finish in second plac
13%
Will Alfonso López Chau finish in third place
13%
Will Wolfgang Grozo finish in third place in
12%
Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in second pla
12%
Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in third plac
11%
Will Mario Vizcarra finish in third place in
11%
Will Wolfgang Grozo finish in second place in
10%
Will Mesías Guevara finish in second place in
10%
Will Yonhy Lescano finish in second place in
10%
Will Rafael Belaúnde Llosa finish in second p
10%
Will Mario Vizcarra finish in second place in
10%
Will Jorge Nieto finish in second place in th
10%
Will Ricardo Belmont finish in third place in
9%
Will Keiko Fujimori finish in third place in
9%
Will Enrique Valderrama finish in third place
9%
Will George Forsyth finish in second place in
9%
Will Vladimir Cerrón finish in second place i
8%
Will José Williams finish in second place in
8%
Will José Luna finish in second place in the
8%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas finish in third plac
7%
Will César Acuña finish in third place in the
7%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in third
6%
Will José Williams finish in third place in t
6%
Will Yonhy Lescano finish in third place in t
6%
Will Carlos Álvarez finish in third place in
6%
Will Jorge Nieto finish in third place in the
6%
Will Fiorella Molinelli finish in second plac
6%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in third place i
5%
Will Rafael Belaúnde Llosa finish in third pl
5%
Will César Acuña finish in second place in th
5%
Will Carlos Espá finish in third place in the
4%
Will Fernando Olivera finish in third place i
4%
Will George Forsyth finish in third place in
3%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in thir
3%
Will José Luna finish in third place in the f
3%
Will Marisol Pérez Tello finish in third plac
3%
Will Fiorella Molinelli finish in third place
3%
Will Ricardo Belmont finish in second place i
3%
Will Vladimir Cerrón finish in third place in
3%
Will Geraldo Alckmin finish in third place in
2%
Will Fernando Haddad finish in third place in
2%
Will Camilo Santana finish in third place in
2%
Will Mesías Guevara finish in third place in
1%
Will Jair Bolsonaro finish in third place in
1%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro finish in third place
1%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro finish in third place
0%

51 related outcomes · highlighted = this market

Price History

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Price History

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Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 7%99%
Buy YES@ 7¢
Edge

+7.7%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.5%
½ Kelly0.3%
Buy NO@ 94¢

-0.5%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+7.7% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.5%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Ricardo Belmont finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?" at 7% YES / 93% NO. In the last 24 hours, $128 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 7%. The bid-ask spread is 10.40 percentage points. The market closes on April 12, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-24). "Will Ricardo Belmont finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 7%, NO 93%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1656076

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