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Markets/Will Peter Attia be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?
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Will Peter Attia be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?

Closes June 30, 2026

Polymarket Price

3%YES
97%NO

Volume 24h

$7K

Liquidity

$9K

Bid / Ask

3% / 4%

Spread

0.80pp

Expert Signal

3%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Peter Attia be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?" at 3% YES / 97% NO. In the last 24 hours, $7K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 3%. The bid-ask spread is 0.80 percentage points. The market closes on June 30, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-31). "Will Peter Attia be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 3%, NO 97%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1370733

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-0.1pp

Key Moments

First recorded

3% YES

Mar 31, 2026

Current

3% YES (-0.1pp recent)

Mar 31, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 3%99%
Buy YES@ 3¢

-11.8%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 97¢
Edge

+0.4%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly11.8%
½ Kelly5.9%
Buy NO+0.4% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 11.8%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this