Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?
Closes September 20, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$154K
Liquidity
$11K
Bid / Ask
10% / 10%
Spread
0.40pp
Expert Signal
10%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state…
2026
18 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Key Moments
First recorded
9% YES
Mar 27, 2026
Current
10% YES (-0.3pp recent)
Mar 27, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
-0.5%
EV per $ wagered
+0.1%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?" at 10% YES / 90% NO. In the last 24 hours, $154K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 10%. The bid-ask spread is 0.40 percentage points. The market closes on September 20, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-27). "Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 10%, NO 90%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/789955
Go Deeper
Entity Hub
All related markets, signals, and news in one view.
Forecaster Signals
See all markets where experts diverge from Polymarket prices.
Venue Divergence
Where Polymarket, Kalshi, and PredictIt disagree most.
Correlated Markets
Markets whose prices move with this one.
Event Cluster
All markets about the same event across venues.
Download 90d CSV
Full price history for your own analysis.