Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman?
Closes June 30, 2026
Markets appear correctly priced with macro signals showing Oil +1.8% ↑, VIX +1.1% ↑, Gold +0.4% ↑ (low confidence — limited signal data).
Signal breakdown
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$2K
Liquidity
$15K
Bid / Ask
5% / 7%
Spread
1.80pp
Expert Signal
6%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman?" at 6% YES / 94% NO. In the last 24 hours, $2K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 6%. The bid-ask spread is 1.80 percentage points. The market closes on June 30, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-07). "Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 6%, NO 94%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1709261
This event has 11 active outcome markets. next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakista: 34%, next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Turkey?: 9%, next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman?: 6%. Implied probability of none resolving YES: ~43%.
next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman?
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Key Moments
First recorded
6% YES
Apr 6, 2026
Current
6% YES (+0.0pp recent)
Apr 6, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+3.4%
EV per $ wagered
-0.2%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this