Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Turkey?
Closes June 30, 2026
Markets appear correctly priced with macro signals showing Oil +1.8% ↑, VIX +1.1% ↑, Gold +0.4% ↑ (low confidence — limited signal data).
Signal breakdown
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$4K
Liquidity
$13K
Bid / Ask
8% / 11%
Spread
2.70pp
Expert Signal
9%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Turkey?" at 9% YES / 91% NO. In the last 24 hours, $4K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 9%. The bid-ask spread is 2.70 percentage points. The market closes on June 30, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-07). "Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Turkey?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 9%, NO 91%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1709267
This event has 11 active outcome markets. next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakista: 34%, next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Turkey?: 9%, next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman?: 6%. Implied probability of none resolving YES: ~43%.
next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Turkey?
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Key Moments
First recorded
10% YES
Apr 6, 2026
Current
10% YES (-0.1pp recent)
Apr 6, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
-1.1%
EV per $ wagered
+0.1%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this