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Markets/Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 16?
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Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 16?

Closes April 16, 2026

ForecastMind Intelligence Score
Low confidence · 1 signal
98%FIS
+1ppvs market 97%
underpriced

ForecastMind sees this +0.9pp above current market price; market at 97% may be underpriced with macro signals showing BTC +0.5% ↑, ETH -1.1% ↓, S&P +1.0% ↑ (low confidence — limited signal data).

Signal breakdown

MacroBTC +0.5% ↑, ETH -1.1% ↓, S&P +1.0% ↑
+0.9pp
Live compute05:24 PM

Polymarket Price

96%YES
4%NO

Volume 24h

$16K

Liquidity

$23K

Bid / Ask

97% / 97%

Spread

0.30pp

Expert Signal

97%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 16?" at 96% YES / 4% NO. In the last 24 hours, $16K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 97%. The bid-ask spread is 0.30 percentage points. The market closes on April 16, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-14). "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 16?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 96%, NO 4%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1928795

Outcome Markets39 markets

This event has 39 active outcome markets. price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 14: 100%, price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 14: 100%, price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 14: 100%.

price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 16?

96%

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-0.1pp

Key Moments

First recorded

98% YES

Apr 14, 2026

Current

97% YES (-0.1pp recent)

Apr 14, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 96%99%
Buy YES@ 96¢
Edge

+0.3%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly7.0%
½ Kelly3.5%
Buy NO@ 4¢

-7.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES+0.3% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 7.0%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this