Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 16?
Closes April 16, 2026
ForecastMind sees this +1.0pp above current market price; market at 9% may be underpriced with macro signals showing BTC +0.5% ↑, ETH -1.0% ↓, S&P +1.0% ↑ (low confidence — limited signal data).
Signal breakdown
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$25K
Liquidity
$26K
Bid / Ask
8% / 9%
Spread
0.10pp
Expert Signal
9%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 16?" at 5% YES / 95% NO. In the last 24 hours, $25K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 9%. The bid-ask spread is 0.10 percentage points. The market closes on April 16, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-14). "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 16?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 5%, NO 95%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1928803
This event has 39 active outcome markets. price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 14: 100%, price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 14: 100%, price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 14: 100%.
price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 16?
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Key Moments
First recorded
16% YES
Apr 14, 2026
Current
8% YES (-4.1pp recent)
Apr 14, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+5.3%
EV per $ wagered
-0.3%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this