Will the US x Iran ceasefire be extended by April 21, 2026?
Closes April 21, 2026
ForecastMind sees this -2.0pp below current market price; market at 39% may be overpriced with macro signals showing Oil -1.2% ↓, VIX -1.3% ↓.
Signal breakdown
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$64K
Liquidity
$40K
Bid / Ask
43% / 44%
Spread
1.00pp
Expert Signal
43%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will the US x Iran ceasefire be extended by April 21, 2026?" at 69% YES / 31% NO. In the last 24 hours, $64K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 43%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 21, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-14). "Will the US x Iran ceasefire be extended by April 21, 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 69%, NO 31%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1918791
This event has 7 active outcome markets. April 21, 2026: 69%, April 30, 2026: 14%, April 10, 2026: 9%.
US x Iran ceasefire be extended by April 21, 2026?
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Key Moments
First recorded
67% YES
Apr 12, 2026
Trough probability
35% YES — lowest in period
Apr 12, 2026
Dropped below 50% — now favored NO
42%
Apr 12, 2026
Crossed 50% — now favored YES
64%
Apr 13, 2026
Biggest move: +23.0pp
41% → 64%
Apr 13, 2026
Peak probability
73% YES — highest in period
Apr 13, 2026
Current
69% YES (+2.0pp recent)
Apr 14, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+0.7%
EV per $ wagered
-1.6%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this