Will Fidesz-KDNP win 36-40% of the national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election?
Closes April 12, 2026
Markets appear correctly priced with macro signals showing GBP/USD +0.306 ↑, VIX +1.1% ↑ (low confidence — limited signal data).
Signal breakdown
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$501
Liquidity
$8K
Bid / Ask
22% / 24%
Spread
2.00pp
Expert Signal
23%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Fidesz-KDNP win 36-40% of the national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election?" at 23% YES / 77% NO. In the last 24 hours, $501 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 23%. The bid-ask spread is 2.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 12, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-06). "Will Fidesz-KDNP win 36-40% of the national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 23%, NO 77%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1578505
This event has 22 active outcome markets. Tisza: 80%, Tisza: 46%, 9: 39%.
Fidesz-KDNP win 36-40% of the national list votes in th
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Price History
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Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
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EV per $ wagered
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EV per $ wagered
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Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this