Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 18%+?
Closes April 12, 2026
ForecastMind sees this +1.1pp above current market price; market at 12% may be underpriced with macro signals showing GBP/USD -0.041 ↓, VIX +0.6% ↑ (low confidence — limited signal data).
Signal breakdown
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$7K
Liquidity
$8K
Bid / Ask
12% / 15%
Spread
3.00pp
Expert Signal
12%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 18%+?" at 12% YES / 88% NO. In the last 24 hours, $7K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 12%. The bid-ask spread is 3.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 12, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-10). "Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 18%+?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 12%, NO 88%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1795360
This event has 26 active outcome markets. Tisza: 83%, 9: 45%, Tisza: 38%.
Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+0.0%
EV per $ wagered
+0.0%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this